No one knows what percentage of the U.S. population actually owns guns. As with religion, the federal government does not keep official records or collect statistics on gun ownership. So we depend on surveys conducted by organizations like the Gallup Poll, Pew Research Center, NORC/General Social Survey, and others.
Those surveys often produce different estimates of gun ownership rates. Consider data from questions about whether respondents live in a household in which someone (not necessarily themselves) owns a gun (including the margin of error):
Pew Research Center (2017): 39-45% household gun ownership
Gallup Poll (2018): 39-47%
Monmouth University (2018): 43-49%
NORC/General Social Survey (2016): 29-35%
Similar differences are evident if we look at personal gun ownership rates. These surveys ask not only if someone in the respondent’s household owns a gun, but also whether they personally do (including the margin of error):
Pew Research Center (2017): 27-33% personal gun ownership (as I noted before)
Monmouth University (2018): 31-37%
NORC/General Social Survey (2016): 17-23%
How do we explain why the NORC/General Social Survey produces estimates of personal and household gun ownership that are substantially lower than other surveys?
A major culprit is that the General Social Survey is conducted face-to-face in people’s homes, while most other surveys are conducted over the phone or online.* Many people, even those who do not wear tin hats, will not tell a stranger in their home that they own guns. It is easier to admit that one owns guns to a stranger you are not speaking to face-to-face.** Therefore, I think the estimates of Pew, Gallup, and Monmouth are closer to reality than NORC/GSS.
So, if anyone ever asks you how many gun owners there are in America, you can tell them AT LEAST:
40% of households in America have guns in them
30% of individuals in America own a gun
In a following post I will also explain why saying AT LEAST is crucial here, because these figures underestimate the actual rate of gun ownership in the United States.
NOTES
*I do not take this to be a blanket indictment of the General Social Survey. I have used GSS data for 25 years, including for an article I published on religion and gun ownership. No data is perfect. But this systematic under-representation of gun ownership in the GSS is significant because their low rate of ownership is often used politically to suggest that gun owners are a small and hence marginal demographic in American society.
**I say “admit” here because I have seen the way some people talk about gun owners, especially when they don’t think gun owners are around them. I have been in many situations in which I would never admit to being a gun owner for fear of being on the receiving end of others’ scorn. The stigma is real and is actively promoted by those who want to make gun ownership culturally unacceptable like other “vices” (smoking, drinking and driving).
Gun Curious 
Doggone it, I was trying to get a newline! This is the blog post I was talking about. David, if you want to edit these into one post, feel free. https://graphicalrepresentation.wordpress.com/2018/03/20/graphics-matter-demographics-edition/
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Author of the post claims “the probability of an average firearm owner answering truthfully when a random stranger calls them on the phone or knocks on their door asking if they own firearm is… vanishingly small.” Absolutely incorrect. Unless he uses a definition of vanishingly small much different than is common
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I noticed that too, when I re-read it tonight.
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(I don’t know why post are getting posted before I’m clicking on the post comment button. Keyboard error? Please delete my unfinished posts.)
I’ve been thinking about your reply, and thinking about the author of the other blog.
I know the author through Facebook, and I will guess that his comment is based on his personal outlook, and the gun owners that he associates with most. Clearly, from the various studies you’ve posted, that isn’t true for all gun owners. I would guess that it would be difficult to determine how many gun owners do answer ‘0’ to these polls. I have not decided what I would do.
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As with so many things, the world is complex. But I never take the opinion that the world is complex so we can’t know anything about it. I would be out of business as a sociologist if so. I understand why a gun owner would not answer a survey (or answer it honestly) about gun ownership, just as I understand why some gun people do not talk to the media. Perhaps because I come from outside gun culture and have not fought in some some of the gun wars that others have, I almost always say yes when the media contacts me for comment and if I knew the polling agency and trusted it I would answer the questions honestly.
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Diving a little deeper into the rabbit hole, this particular person has a professional background in physical facility and information security, and might answer a simple question “Is the sky blue?” with “Perhaps. Why do you want to know?” 🙂
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Particularly on the self-defense side of gun culture there is a fair share of prepper/survivalist mentality.Living in the hardened bunker/home, not answering the door/phone, guarding personal info closely. That’s not really me, but I can’t say that it’s wrong. They may have the last laugh.
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